Season Record: 6-6

Last week did not exactly go the way I drew it up. It was one of those weeks where I had to make a lot of judgement calls about teams based on how they played against bad competition.

I was, unfortunately, just flat out wrong about a lot of those judgements I made. That being said, I learned a lot from watching those teams play real competition last week and am ready to bounce back in a big way!

Let’s make this bread!

Kentucky vs Georgia

• Spread: Georgia -20.5
• O/U: 48.5
• ML: Kentucky +890

There is nothing I love more than betting on an elite team after a major loss. Especially in this spot, where Georgia is playing the worst team in the SEC in Athens.

I expect Kirby Smart to have his bulldogs pumped up for this one. This team is going to come out pissed off and ready to beat up on a much inferior opponent. Georgia was able to run the ball relatively well against Alabama which leads me to believe they should have no problem against this Kentucky team.

On top of all that, this Kentucky team is on major give up watch. It’s possible that they muster up the last bit of fight they have left. However, I think that the Wildcats will go down a couple scores and completely give up on this game.

The Pick: Georgia -20.5

Iowa St. vs Cincinnati

• Spread: Cincinnati -1.5
• O/U: 55.5
• ML: Iowa State +105

This line just screams Cincinnati. A top 15 team being an underdog to an unranked team is always a sign that Vegas thinks that top 15 team is overrated. Let’s dive into the logic behind why Cincinnati is favored in this one though,

From what we have seen from Cincinnati so far, this is a good offensive team with a bad defense. This offense has put up 34+ points in each of it’s games besides one. That one outlier was against Nebraska. That was a game that Brendan Sorsby didn’t quite look like himself. He has been much better in the other three games and that is the guy I expect to show up this Saturday.

Everything I just said about Cincinnati, you can pretty much just apply to Iowa State as well. They are a good offense with a bad defense. I do give them a slight edge in QB as I trust Rocco Becht just a bit more than I do Sorsby. However, that edge is just not big enough for me to take this Iowa State team on the road. I’ll take the Bearcats at home in a battle between two very similar teams.

The Pick: Cincinnati -1.5

Vanderbilt vs Alabama

• Spread: Alabama -10.5
• O/U: 55.5
• ML: Vanderbilt +330

This is one of those games that I constantly went back and forth on. On one hand, this Alabama team is coming off a game where they looked like a legit championship contender on the road in Athens. On the other, I don’t ever want to bet against Diego Paivia with a plus sign by his name.

So where does that leave me? Simple. The over.

This Alabama defense is just kind of OK in my eyes. They can cover on the back end, but the problem is that they don’t get a lot of pressure on the QB and they don’t stop the run particularly well. That isn’t a good formula to stop a Vanderbilt offense led by Diego Paivia, who is completing almost 75% of his passes this season and has ran for 294 yards on the ground.

Vanderbilt’s defense has looked fine this season but they haven’t really played anyone of substance. The best data point we have was against South Carolina and they aren’t even a top 50 offense. They also just let up 35 points to Utah State.

In the end, I don’t know who will win this game. However, I do trust both of these defenses to give up plenty of points.

The Pick: Over 55.5

Washington vs Maryland

• Spread: Washington -6.5
• O/U: 53.5
• ML: Maryland +202

This one might have the most simple logic of the six games I picked.

The record shows that West Coast teams that have to travel out to the East Coast typically do not win. They don’t even cover for that matter. However, Washington is a really good team coming off of a game where they played the best team in the country. I am going to put my trust in Demond Williams and the Huskies to bounce back in this one.

Throw out the record books. Those Huskies are coming!

The Pick: Washington -6.5

Miami vs Florida St.

• Spread: Miami -4.5
• O/U: 53.5
• ML: Florida State +150

Initially, this line didn’t make a lot of sense to me. Miami just seems like a much better team than Florida State. However, after digging into it a little bit, I now understand it a little bit more.

This Miami offense is loaded with talent. Carson Beck has made the most of that talent and has let his skill players make the big plays for him. That might sound like a dig at Beck, but there is something to be said about a QB who plays like a point guard. Just get the ball to the guys who make things happen. However, Beck has not been asked to make a ton of high level throws. When he was asked to do so against Florida, he didn’t exactly look like a real difference maker. I think that is closer to the performance we will see from Carson Beck in this one rather than the one we saw against Notre Dame.

On the other side, Florida State is coming off a tough loss against Virginia. However, Tommy Castellanos proved that he can make big time plays down the stretch. While I don’t think Castellanos will be able to sit back and pick apart this Miami defense, I do think the FSU offense will be able to score. On top of that, the Seminoles are at home. A place where they beat what we now know is a very good Alabama team.

I like Florida State to keep this one close.

The Pick: Florida State +4.5

Mississippi St. vs Texas A&M

• Spread: Mississippi St. +14.5
• O/U: Over 55.5
• ML: Mississippi State +470

It feels like every year we get to this same point with Texas A&M. They win a handful of games and we start wondering if they are actually legit this time.

I actually think they are…at least on the offensive side of the ball. Marcel Reed is a bit inconsistent. When he is on though, he is one of the better QBs in the country. On the other side of the ball, the defense has really only looked good against Auburn and I won’t give them credit for shutting down Jackson Arnold. Just about everyone does that. So, I expect this defense to let up plenty of points.

Speaking of points, let’s talk about how many Mississippi State has been scoring. They have scored at least 24 points in all five of their games this season. In four of those games, they scored at least 34 points. However, their defense is a bit suspect. They just let up 41 points to Tennessee, so it’s hard for me to fully trust them to stop A&M.

In the end, these are two teams that I don’t trust to make stops and have great offenses. Give me the over all day!

The Pick: Over 55.5